{
  "months": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "p_believer": 92,
      "p_skeptic": 3,
      "p_no_bet": 5,
      "who_ahead": "Believer",
      "bullets": [
        "Final logic (~2026-09-30): Believer wins if it is NOT the case that both labs are Out of Business (zero or one failure = Believer). Skeptic still needs BOTH OOB (Ch.11 counts). Dual failure still rare next to fresh capital (OpenAI March $122B / $852B; Anthropic spring ~$65B at $965B) and early-June confidential listings.",
        "No-bet is mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided \u2014 not single-lab failure. Per-lab distress looked low as of this date, so joint Skeptic stays thin and Believer is well ahead."
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-01",
      "p_believer": 93,
      "p_skeptic": 3,
      "p_no_bet": 4,
      "who_ahead": "Believer",
      "bullets": [
        "No July solvency break; a July 30 third-party tracker put OpenAI ARR near $43B. Under final rules Believer captures one-out paths as wins, so Believer odds tick up further vs the old partition.",
        "Anthropic\u2019s last public run-rate was still the May ~$47B figure; Skeptic still needs both labs OOB (incl. Ch.11). No-bet remains a thin dual-void residual."
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "p_believer": 83,
      "p_skeptic": 12,
      "p_no_bet": 5,
      "who_ahead": "Believer",
      "bullets": [
        "Final rules: one-lab OOB \u2192 Believer (not no-bet). Polymarket any-bankruptcy ~mid-teens to ~17%+ per lab (opened Sep 17) plus Sep burn math keep joint Skeptic ~similar to the dual-OOB path (~12% with mild correlation).",
        "Former mixed one-out mass shifts into Believer, so No-bet collapses to dual carve-outs / both legs voided. Believer remains clearly ahead on the bottle."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "rules_note": "Final amendment ~2026-09-30: Believer wins unless BOTH labs are Out of Business by the deadline (one-lab OOB \u2192 Believer). Skeptic wins only on dual OOB. Ch.11 still counts as OOB for a lab. No-bet is mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided \u2014 not single failure.",
  "wager_summary": {
    "believer": "Joseph Conley \u2014 wins if it is NOT the case that BOTH OpenAI and Anthropic are Out of Business by June 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET (zero or one failure = Believer; Ch.11 counts as OOB for a lab)",
    "skeptic": "wins ONLY if BOTH hit Out of Business (Ch.7, Ch.11/equivalent restructuring, permanent cessation, receiver wind-down, or dissolution)",
    "no_bet": "mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided (e.g. both acquired with continued AI ops); one-lab OOB is Believer, not no-bet"
  }
}