AI Viability Wager

AI Viability Wager — monthly tracker for probabilities and brief rationale.

Wager summary

Believer: Joseph Conley — wins if BOTH OpenAI and Anthropic stay independently operational through June 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET
Skeptic: wins only if BOTH cease independent operations under the wager’s Out of Business rules
No‑bet: acquisition/Ch.11 with continued ops (or similar carve-outs) void a leg; both voided → no-bet

AI Viability Wager — outcome probabilities over time

Entries are in chronological order.

Believer: 70% Skeptic: 2% No‑bet: 28%
Both labs had just raised large rounds (OpenAI’s March raise; Anthropic’s spring round) and confidentially filed to list in early June — dual liquidation inside ~24 months looked like a thin tail vs a hyperscaler rescue.
No required-outlet Ch.7 / dissolution / permanent service shutdown for either lab as of this date.

Believer: 72% Skeptic: 2% No‑bet: 26%
July brought no solvency break; a July 30 third-party tracker put OpenAI ARR near $43B, nudging joint-survival odds up.
Anthropic’s last public run-rate still sat at the May ~$47B figure; Skeptic still needed both labs to hit the strict out-of-business bar.

Believer: 63% Skeptic: 4% No‑bet: 33%
September burn math (OpenAI capital possibly exhausted in 2028 on a deep negative-FCF path; Anthropic’s large compute obligations vs thinner cash) raised rescue / Ch.11-with-ops odds more than dual liquidation.
Operations still looked strong on ARR (OpenAI above $40B by August and climbing; Anthropic ~$65B by end-July), and prediction markets that count Ch.11 overstate Skeptic’s strict two-lab out-of-business path.

Disclaimer: Rough public-info judgment only. Not betting, investment, or legal advice. Honor wager between private parties through June 30, 2028.

Machine‑readable history: history.json · history.csv