AI Viability Wager

AI Viability Wager — monthly tracker for probabilities and brief rationale.

Wager summary

Believer: Joseph Conley — wins if it is NOT the case that BOTH OpenAI and Anthropic are Out of Business by June 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET (zero or one failure = Believer; Ch.11 counts as OOB for a lab)
Skeptic: wins ONLY if BOTH hit Out of Business (Ch.7, Ch.11/equivalent restructuring, permanent cessation, receiver wind-down, or dissolution)
No‑bet: mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided (e.g. both acquired with continued AI ops); one-lab OOB is Believer, not no-bet

Rules note: Final amendment ~2026-09-30: Believer wins unless BOTH labs are Out of Business by the deadline (one-lab OOB → Believer). Skeptic wins only on dual OOB. Ch.11 still counts as OOB for a lab. No-bet is mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided — not single failure.

AI Viability Wager — outcome probabilities over time

Monthly tracker

Entries are in chronological order.

Jul 1, 2026

30|- **Believer**: 92% &nbsp;&nbsp; **Skeptic**: 3% &nbsp;&nbsp; **No‑bet**: 5%

Believer: 92% Skeptic: 3% No‑bet: 5%
Final logic (~2026-09-30): Believer wins if it is NOT the case that both labs are Out of Business (zero or one failure = Believer). Skeptic still needs BOTH OOB (Ch.11 counts). Dual failure still rare next to fresh capital (OpenAI March $122B / $852B; Anthropic spring ~$65B at $965B) and early-June confidential listings.
No-bet is mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided — not single-lab failure. Per-lab distress looked low as of this date, so joint Skeptic stays thin and Believer is well ahead.

Aug 1, 2026

Believer: 93% Skeptic: 3% No‑bet: 4%
No July solvency break; a July 30 third-party tracker put OpenAI ARR near $43B. Under final rules Believer captures one-out paths as wins, so Believer odds tick up further vs the old partition.
Anthropic’s last public run-rate was still the May ~$47B figure; Skeptic still needs both labs OOB (incl. Ch.11). No-bet remains a thin dual-void residual.

Sep 30, 2026

Believer: 83% Skeptic: 12% No‑bet: 5%
Final rules: one-lab OOB → Believer (not no-bet). Polymarket any-bankruptcy ~mid-teens to ~17%+ per lab (opened Sep 17) plus Sep burn math keep joint Skeptic ~similar to the dual-OOB path (~12% with mild correlation).
Former mixed one-out mass shifts into Believer, so No-bet collapses to dual carve-outs / both legs voided. Believer remains clearly ahead on the bottle.

Disclaimer: Rough public-info judgment only. Not betting, investment, or legal advice. Honor wager between private parties through June 30, 2028.

Machine‑readable history: history.json · history.csv