AI Viability Wager — weekly tracker for probabilities and brief rationale.
Wager summary
Believer: Joseph Conley — wins if it is NOT the case that BOTH OpenAI and Anthropic are Out of Business by June 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET (zero or one failure = Believer; Ch.11 counts as OOB for a lab)
Skeptic: wins ONLY if BOTH hit Out of Business (Ch.7, Ch.11/equivalent restructuring, permanent cessation, receiver wind-down, or dissolution)
No‑bet: mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided (e.g. both acquired with continued AI ops); one-lab OOB is Believer, not no-bet
Rules note: Final amendment ~2026-09-30: Believer wins unless BOTH labs are Out of Business by the deadline (one-lab OOB → Believer). Skeptic wins only on dual OOB. Ch.11 still counts as OOB for a lab. No-bet is mainly dual carve-outs / both legs voided — not single failure.
Hover (or tap) any dot to see that week’s Believer / Skeptic / No-bet %.
Weekly tracker
Newest first.
Oct 27, 2026
Believer: 88% Skeptic: 7% No‑bet: 5%
Anthropic made its S-1 public on Oct 26 (Nasdaq: ANT): H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, up ~14x, with an implied ~85% gross margin, ~900% net revenue retention and just $6.2B of debt; most of its $80.7B H1 net loss was a non-cash convertible-note revaluation (CNBC).
The filing also showed ~$266B of noncancelable compute purchase commitments plus ~$321B of lease obligations, and flagged possible material revenue losses from its Pentagon dispute; the IPO could top SpaceX’s record $86B raise and would beat OpenAI to market (AP).
Oct 19, 2026
Believer: 86% Skeptic: 9% No‑bet: 5%
Anthropic told investors Q3 revenue rose 45% to $16.8B and that it was profitable on an adjusted basis (Reuters, Oct 14); it plans to file publicly on Oct 26 for a mid-November IPO (IFR).
OpenAI’s ~$30B raise at ~$1.4T was still in talks with no term sheet; PitchBook put fair value near $1T as losses keep growing.
Oct 12, 2026
Believer: 84% Skeptic: 11% No‑bet: 5%
OpenAI told investors 2026 revenue would be ~$50B, well below the ~$70B run-rate signaled weeks earlier (Guardian, Oct 9).
The $30B OpenAI raise and Anthropic’s expected November IPO both remained on track.
Oct 5, 2026
Believer: 85% Skeptic: 10% No‑bet: 5%
Bloomberg: OpenAI in talks with UAE funds (incl. MGX) and BlackRock to anchor a $30B+ round at ~$1.4T pre-money; IPO pushed to 2027.
Anthropic reported to be preparing an IPO as soon as November.
Sep 30, 2026
Believer: 83% Skeptic: 12% No‑bet: 5%
Polymarket bankruptcy markets opened Sep 17, pricing each lab’s bankruptcy odds in the mid-teens to ~17%.
Reports on heavy 2026–2028 compute burn sharpened scrutiny of both labs’ cash needs.
Aug 1, 2026
Believer: 93% Skeptic: 3% No‑bet: 4%
A July 30 third-party tracker put OpenAI annualized revenue near $43B.
Anthropic’s last public run-rate was still ~$47B (May); no July funding or solvency stress.
Jul 1, 2026
Believer: 92% Skeptic: 3% No‑bet: 5%
OpenAI closed a $122B round at an $852B valuation in March; Anthropic raised ~$65B at ~$965B in spring.
Both labs made early-June confidential IPO filings; no public sign of financial distress.
Disclaimer: Rough public-info judgment only. Not betting, investment, or legal advice. Honor wager between private parties through June 30, 2028.